Probabilistic Risk Assessment – Kevin Becker

Abstract: What is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)? Dr. Michael Stamatelatos defines PRA as “a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance.PRA is a stochastic (as the name implies) method of quantifying the risk of a device or situation so that decision makers can properly assess the risk vs. benefit. PRA has been used for analyzing critical risks including those associated with nuclear reactor safety, long term radioactive waste disposal, IT security, International Space Station options, the Cassini mission, and space shuttle options.

Keywords: Probabilistic - Event Sequence Diagram - Event Tree - Monte Carlo Analysis