March 2002
Volume 4 • Number 2

Contents

PRACTITIONER NOTES
Creating Accurate Estimates and Realistic Schedules
by Steven R. Rakitin

CSQE Body of Knowledge areas: Program and Project Management

The ability of an organization to accurately estimate tasks, build realistic schedules, and then meet those schedules is critical. Yet few organizations have demonstrated the ability to do this consistently. As a result, many software development and appraisal groups have little or no credibility when it comes to estimating and scheduling. Organizations may be deficient because of a lack of training, inability to manage commitments made to customers, poorly defined requirements, or lack of management support. Some organizations believe project management tools can improve their estimating and scheduling abilities. Unfortunately, tools cannot solve this problem—identifying and implementing best practices can. This article describes a technique based on team communication that has proved to be a useful method for estimating and scheduling the work required to develop and evaluate software products.

Key words: estimating, project management, scheduling, team communication, Wideband Delphi Method, Yellow Sticky Note Method

INTRODUCTION

The ability of an organization to produce accurate estimates, build realistic schedules, and then meet those schedules is critical. What happens when a software project is behind schedule? Often, features are dropped at the last minute, activities such as inspections are eliminated, and testing time is reduced. The result is a product that is delivered late, with fewer features than were promised, and often with far too many defects. When this happens, everyone loses:

• The company’s customers lose because they may receive the software later than promised, without key features, and with more defects than were expected.
• The company’s employees lose since no one wants to be associated with projects that are deemed failures.
• The company loses as its reputation suffers from not meeting customer commitments.

The objective of this article is twofold: 1) to provide insight into why estimates and schedules are usually wrong, and 2) to describe a technique that has been proven to provide more accurate estimates and realistic schedules.